The solar industry is closing out another incredible year with celebratory milestones as well as increasing challenges. From module oversupply to plummeting prices to new tariffs and big developments, the industry continues to grow.
Looking back on the year is a productive exercise for solar companies to understand factors at play entering a new year of business. Studying market conditions also sheds light on what’s happening in the secondary market to help plan for downstream activities, including resale and recycling, and uncover new opportunities. Data and insights from EnergyBin, a wholesale remarketing exchange for PV hardware, are presented to bolster this market analysis.
As PV modules are the central component of the industry, this analysis reviews market conditions that affect solar panel pricing and availability and makes reasonable predictions about the year ahead to help solar companies thrive.
Looking Back
At the close of 2023, the world had invested $623 billion (up 8% from 2022) into new renewable energy generation and storage projects. Overall investments in energy transition technologies totaled $1.8 trillion. China retained its first position in the industry, with the U.S. in second place.
Spurred by the Inflation Reduction Act, the U.S. had raised $200 billion for renewable energy generation and grid sectors. An additional $360 billion in tax credit incentives were made available for renewable energy investments. Other big investment markets were the European Union ($341 billion) and the U.K. ($74 billion).
These dollars are noteworthy. However, the global renewable energy industry lagged behind emissions reductions called for in the Paris Agreement. According to Bloomberg New Energy Finance, triple the level of investment will be needed to achieve a Net Zero scenario. That calculates to $4.84 trillion per year between 2024 and 2030, $6.5 annually in the following decade, and $7.5 trillion each year from 2041-2050.
At the onset of 2024, investors were faced with a massive oversupply of PV modules, which would send prices plummeting throughout the year. Although low prices are good for project investments, supply flowing primarily from China far outpaced demand.
Wood Mackenzie estimated that module production capacity in China was around three times greater than the entire global demand. As a result, no new factories are needed until 2030 at the earliest. Investments in solar manufacturing have been affected by oversupply, which has caused a weakened case for localized production, a strategy that the U.S., India, and EU have all been pursuing.
In February, the U.S. Energy Information Administration warned about shipping delays and increased costs for the western world as conflicts intensified in the Red Sea region and a draught hit the Panama region. Solar panel shipments were prone to shipping constraints, which put pressure on Q1 supply.
By March, it became clear that TOPCon modules would become the main module product in the market when major manufacturers premiered new n-type products and discussed their PERC phase-out plans at the Large Scale Solar Europe Summit. Analysts noted that a swift phase-out of PERC will make it difficult to find these products in the future.
When April rolled around, it was apparent that falling module prices were impacting the secondary market, especially secondhand module sales. EnergyBin saw a drop in secondhand volume. Of the Used modules listed, most were discontinued and attractive for replacement modules in existing arrays, such as SolarWorld, LG, and SunPower. But overall module supply on EnergyBin was not significantly affected as 95% of products for sale were new with warranty.
However, in Europe, SecondSol, an online marketplace primarily selling used PV equipment, reported a decline in secondhand sales and volume. The hit on reuse occurred in the shadow of 70-85 GW of new surplus module imports into the EU market. Asset owners and managers likely held onto used stock in hopes that aftermarket prices would rebound.
Another headline in the news that rocked the European market reported on huge amounts of exported solar waste. A study published in the Journal of Cleaner Production claimed that up to 90% of used solar panels in some countries were being exported rather than responsibly recycled. This issue presented another possible fate of secondhand modules, in which asset owners attempted to export the volume to avoid paying recycling costs.
Both issues are barriers to developing a robust secondary market and a sustainable circular economy. In the short term, these issues prove it challenging for corporate businesses and investors to report on Scope 3 emissions. Governments with sustainability goals are also hindered in accurate reporting when downstream solutions are either nonexistent or fall short of fulfilling reuse and recycling outcomes.
Meanwhile in the U.S., solar manufacturers took on the supply glut by petitioning the Department of Commerce and International Trade Commission to investigate Chinese module and cell imports coming from Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand, and Cambodia. The group of manufacturers, called the American Alliance of Solar Manufacturing Trade Committee, includes First Solar, Hanwha QCELLS, and Meyer Burger. This new petition caused the industry to brace for uncertainty with respect to the financial models of current and future projects.
India also ramped up its domestic manufacturing infrastructure with massive investments into supporting a vertical production process. The goal is to eventually become independent of Chinese imports. India’s decision to move forward with domestic manufacturing points to investor and government confidence amidst the global supply glut.
At the end of May, freight costs for vessels traveling from Asia to the U.S. jumped to $5,170 per 40-ft. container (the highest in 640 days). A few weeks later, the cost peaked at $6,250 / FEU. Fluctuations in freight costs and uncertain delays have made it challenging to budget and plan for module shipment arrivals.
In June, the International Technology Roadmap for Photovoltaic (ITRPV) reported that n-type wafers were on track to gain 69% market share by year-end. ITRPV noted that by the end of the year, PERC p-type cells would drop to a world market share of 40% while TOPCon n-type cells would increase to 49% share. The remaining 11% market share would be comprised of other n-type cells, such as back content, Si-based tandem, and Si-heterojunction products.
June also marked the extension and increase of Section 301 tariffs on all solar imports from China coming into the U.S. Solar cells and batteries for cars were added. This move came at the termination of the two-year tariff exemption on imports from Southeast Asia. As a result, the market experienced a stalled buying period. Modules for sale on EnergyBin declined by 53% at this time as well.
Additionally, an affirmative determination from the International Trade Commission stated that U.S. manufacturers were being internally injured by solar module and cell imports from Malaysia, Vietnam, Cambodia, and Thailand. This determination alluded to forthcoming new tariffs.
In Europe, the Net Zero Industry Act (NZIA) was adopted. Its purpose is to ramp up Europe’s own solar manufacturing capabilities with a goal of reaching 30 GW of capacity by 2030.
July saw the solar recycling market gain traction as the IEA-PVPS reported a total of 456 known patents including pure mechanical recycling, light pulse treatment, jet cleaning, pyrolysis, and chemical treatments. This report is the world’s first real understanding of the size of the recycling market and volume currently recycled by facility. It noted an increase in commercial PV material recyclers and equipment providers from 25 companies in 2017 to 177 companies this year. Each company reported a recycling volume ranging from 1,000 tons per year to 50,000+ tons per year.
By August, module prices in Europe dropped to €0.113/Wp for mono n-type and €0.116/Wp for bifacial n-type products. But p-type modules increased by 11% to €0.114/Wp because of a demand surge in anticipation of their discontinuation.
In the U.S., the American Alliance for Solar Manufacturing Trade Committee filed a formal request with the Department of Commerce to impose retroactive tariffs on modules imported from Vietnam and Thailand. Since April, the U.S. experienced an influx of imports from these countries (39% increase in shipments from Vietnam and 17% increase in shipments from Thailand). This move occurred right before TOPCon modules originating in China hit the world market at $0.095/W FOB. U.S. tariffs preserved an average TOPCon price of $0.290/W DDP (range: $0.220-$0.330/W).
In September, analysts revised their year-end outlooks for PV installations in response to falling prices. Bloomberg reported global installations for the year would be 592 GW, up 33% from 2023. Lower prices had opened new markets, and growth increased in India and Pakistan. But Bloomberg warned that competition in module manufacturing remained high and most players would report losses for FY 2024.
On October 1, the U.S. Department of Commerce released its preliminary affirmative determination in the countervailing duty case related to solar cell exports from Southeast Asia. Tariffs would range from 1-300% by manufacturer company name. Rates may increase at the time of final determination in Q2 2025. Customs and Border Protection immediately began collecting cash deposits. The Department also ruled that solar cells imported from Vietnam and Thailand during the first half of the year would receive retroactive tariffs. Investigations into silicon wafer operations, polysilicon operations, silver paste, aluminum frames, junction boxes, and solar glass in Southeast Asia are ongoing.
November had the world questioning how low module prices would go. OPIS, a Dow Jones company, reported TOPCon modules from China were $0.087/W FOB. TOPCon prices in Europe were down 98% at €0.101/W DDP. In the U.S., the average price was $0.285/W DDP.
Regarding U.S. PERC module prices, the average was $0.284/W, indicating a favorable time to sell. On EnergyBin, there was a mad rush to clear out PERC inventory to make room for 2025 new TOPCon stock. Module volume increased by 67%.
In December, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced details on new tariff duties for solar cells imported from Malaysia, Vietnam, Cambodia, and Thailand. This announcement was largely expected by the industry. The new tariffs range from 21.31% to 271.28% and are specific to company and country. The Department also noted that imports from Indonesia and Laos were being monitored, as Chinese-owned solar plants moved into these countries.
The tariff strategy has strengthened domestic manufacturing. In the Q4 Solar Market Insight Report, SEIA and Wood Mackenzie noted the U.S. had reached a capacity of nearly 40 GW, enough to meet most of the domestic demand.
All these conditions shed light on what will likely happen to solar panel pricing and availability in 2025, both within primary and secondary market channels.
2025 Outlook
The following predictions about solar panel pricing and availability are based on the data at hand – that which came from the solar industry at large and is complemented by EnergyBin exchange activity from wholesale members who deal in PV hardware. Of total hardware costs, solar panels comprise the greatest expense of a project, and pricing and availability are two primary factors affecting project development.
Furthermore, if a project is delayed or cancelled, and modules have already been purchased, they tend to flow into the secondary market where they are remarketed to a new buyer. As a result, predictions span both primary and secondary market channels.
Prediction 1: Solar development will keep going up.
Overall, data suggests the upward trend in global solar development is not phased by political ideology regarding climate change. Solar is now the lowest cost option thanks to low module prices compared to other new build energy sources. Wood Mackenzie forecasts 6.3 TWDC of new solar capacity to be built in the next ten years. China will account for roughly 50% of the growth, as the country chips away at its module oversupply. Faster interconnection times in many countries will also aid growth.
The U.S. will continue as the world’s second largest market; although, growth will be rather flat. Wood Mackenzie forecasts an average annual growth of at least 43 GWDC from 2025 through 2029.
However, module pricing and availability are not factors of the flat growth, but rather a lack of labor, high voltage equipment constraints, and interconnection delays.
Prediction 2: PERC modules will be difficult to find by the end of next year.
Manufacturers have warned the industry at trade shows and conferences throughout 2024 that they either have or nearly completed their TOPCon transitions. ITRPV has been singing the same tune.
On EnergyBin, the volume of PERC modules has decreased from 2023 through 2024 as modules with other cell technologies have been posted for sale. For example, PERC made up just 41% of Monofacial modules listed for sale on the exchange, 44% of All Black modules, and 49% of Bifacial modules. Overall, PERC modules for sale on the exchange decreased 20% from 2023 (where PERC made up 63%) through 2024 (now 43% of total volume).
If this downward trend continues, new PERC supply in the secondary market will dry up within 2-3 years. However, used PERC modules may be more readily available for resale.
Prediction 3: U.S. module prices will continue to be protected because of tariffs.
U.S. module prices will fluctuate with the uncertainty of new tariffs that will be announced at some point in Q1 2025, and other petitions could be filed next year. However, tariffs have proven to create a competitive playing field for domestic manufacturers and non-tariff affected countries that import their modules into the U.S.
As tariffs are favored by manufacturers, developers and installers have the added challenge of budgeting for higher module prices. Even if they source modules that are exempt from tariffs, overall prices in the U.S. market are higher than global prices, putting pressure on project financial models.
Price volatility stresses the importance for wholesale buyers to request hardware quotes from multiple suppliers as well as consider a variety of module brands and technologies. For instance, All Black modules may cost more than modules with black cells and silver frames, a reasonable alternative.
Exchanges like EnergyBin make it easy to request quotes from multiple pre-qualified sellers without costing buyers time to do so. Plan for project needs and compare quotes as part of your purchasing process.
Prediction 4: Oversupply won’t last forever, but low prices call for wholesalers and resellers to diversify their revenue portfolios.
As Chinese manufacturers reduce production and sell more volume at discounted prices, the global oversupply will diminish. Demand may soon catch up to supply if prices remain low and as new markets take advantage of low prices. But fluctuating freight costs will still affect buying decisions.
Low module prices are good for buyers but cut deeply into sellers’ margins. In some cases, no margin exists. Wholesalers and resellers need to create a diversified business strategy to thrive even when prices go up and down.
Companies that have gained a competitive advantage in the solar industry are those that have implemented value-added services to meet their customer needs. Many EnergyBin members, for example, have found success in creating lifecycle solutions for their customers, such as repair, decommissioning, digitization and data tracking of products for downstream traceability purposes, hardware audits, buy-back programs, remarketing services, and recycling.
Prediction 5: The secondary market will largely consist of excess modules that are new with warranty.
It’s an incorrect assumption to state that the secondary solar market is comprised of only used or secondhand modules. Although extending the life of solar modules via reuse is a critical component of the green market, reuse unfortunately is not mainstream practice now.
There is no indication that buyer demand for reused modules will occur in 2025. Even on EnergyBin, Used modules made up just 5% of the total modules for sale in 2024. The volume of Used modules increased by 7% from 2023 but was down 64% from 2022. Resellers mostly abandoned stocking Used modules when the average price hit $0.042/W.
Instead, 95% of the inventory for resale was excess stock of new modules with manufacturers’ warranties. The excess flowed from surplus and clearance closeouts, remarketing efforts, delayed, downsized, or cancelled projects, asset liquidations, and leftovers from project installations. This has been the case on EnergyBin for the past five years, and it’s expected that 2025 will be no different.
One exception regarding Used modules is the demand for replacement parts. As existing PV systems age but aren’t yet ready for retirement, O&Ms and asset owners will turn to the secondary market in search of replacement parts.
This past year has seen increased demand for Used modules from Tier 1 brands that have been discontinued and are 300 watts and up. Buyers are often willing to pay a competitive price (as much or more than new modules) if the product fits their dimensions and power needs. Used modules in good to excellent condition, are aged ten years or less, and come with a limited guarantee or service warranty tend to attract the best resale value.
Data to Decisions
If there's one certainty as to what will happen in the industry, it’s that business will be fast paced for those companies that go after the opportunities that the primary and secondary markets have to offer. Start by turning data into decisions that make your business thrive.
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More Resources
Opportunities in Solar Panel Reuse and Recycling
5 Wholesale Buyer Sources to Find Quality Solar Panels & PV Hardware