As we launch into a new year, the solar industry will once again face ups and downs due to a variety of ongoing market conditions. From new technology to shifting supply chains to tariffs, every solar company can expect to face challenges with respect to PV module trade.
But challenges are not absent of opportunities. The solar industry will continue to grow. And there are steps wholesale buyers can take to procure solar panels at reasonable prices and on time for their project needs.
In this article, we interview Yousri Abdou, founder of Aten Solar, who shares U.S. market insights and advice to buyers who are sourcing solar panels. Aten has been a member of EnergyBin since 2017.
EB: What can we expect in terms of PV module pricing and supply in 2025?
Globally, we’ll see PV module prices continue to decrease in price with sufficient supply to meet demand. Technological advancements, diversification of supply chains, and geopolitical issues, including tariffs, will be key factors affecting U.S. domestic pricing. These factors will cause fluctuations in both pricing and supply. That’s why prices are higher in the U.S. than global prices, and we’ll likely see prices increase as tariffs take effect.
EB: Let’s talk briefly about the new tariffs that will be applied to some module and cell imports into the U.S. Would you give us a cut-and-dry overview of the AD/CVD duties and the preliminary ruling issued by the U.S. Department of Commerce.
That’s right. In 2025, new tariffs will apply to some solar imports into the U.S. Late last year, the DOC announced a preliminary decision to impose countervailing duties on solar cell imports from Southeast Asia.
Earlier in June, the International Trade Commission reported that “there is reasonable indication that the U.S. solar manufacturing industry is materially injured by imports of silicon solar cells and panels from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam.” That determination led to the federal government imposing antidumping tariffs. The DOC’s preliminary decision reveals what rates are to be implemented this year. Solar Power World gives a simple breakdown of AD subsidy rates by country and manufacturers.
EB: When will this ruling take effect, and is anything likely to change between now and DOC's final ruling?
Final AD and CVD rates should be announced in April. But importers should already be planning for these added duties and can use the preliminary rates as a benchmark.
As for blanket tariffs announced by the new presidential administration, it’s a little early in the game to anticipate what effect these tariffs could have on the solar industry.
EB: In your opinion, how might these tariffs affect the overall market in the near term? How will these tariffs affect solar panels that are already in the U.S., including inventory listed on EnergyBin?
Generally, duties have led to shifts in the global solar supply chain as companies seek alternative sources for wafers, solar cells, and modules. For example, we’re seeing more module imports from Turkey and Indonesia because they are currently tariff-free countries.
But tariffs certainly add a challenge and cut down on the variety of modules available for sale. As supply chains shift, we’ll likely have access to a wider array of modules.
Additionally, new tariffs will raise module prices. Clean Energy Associates recently reported that tariffed modules from Southeast Asia are now costing 5 cents per watt more than tariff-free modules. CEA also noted that pricing on domestic or non-AD/CVD impacted modules will go up as bankable supply goes down.
I believe scarcity will create a boost in secondary market activity as buyers turn to additional sourcing solutions, like EnergyBin. But too much scarcity can also have a negative impact on pricing and project timelines. A balance between supply and demand is ideal, although not always within our control.
The best advice I can offer to wholesale buyers is to develop strong relationships with vendors who have established diversified supply chains and who have contingency plans in place to work around geopolitical and economic factors.
EB: What advice do you have for wholesale buyers to effectively plan for and manage pricing and supply fluctuations?
Because of the market’s instability, I would suggest a buyer includes language in the Purchase Order that ensures all duties, including potential retroactive duties, have or will be paid by the seller and is not the responsibility of the buyer. Then, have the seller sign it.
Again, I highly recommend buyers build strong relationships with multiple suppliers to diversify their sources and reduce reliance on any single one. Doing so can help to secure supply even when others are facing shortages.
EB: As a vendor, tell us about the benefits Aten Solar has to offer wholesale buyers of PV modules.
We're a leading force in the solar module wholesale and surplus market, dedicated to creating win-win partnerships. We help our clients access the highest-quality modules while simultaneously connecting suppliers with new global markets, requiring minimal investment.
Our resources, expertise, and connections work for our partners every day, from helping EPCs secure more projects to facilitating U.S. markets. Ultimately, we're invested in the prosperity of our partners and the advancement of the solar industry.
We also maintain warehouse locations near major U.S. ports, so we can quickly fulfill solar product orders and minimize the potential for costly shipping delays.
For example, if a buyer needs solar products quickly and reliably from anywhere in the world, we can help facilitate international logistics. Our full range of domestic and international transportation solutions ensure on-time delivery, regardless of the destination.
EB: Where do you see the U.S. market going in 2025?
I’m quite optimistic that the market is poised for growth this year, particularly in these areas of focus:
- Increased adoption of battery storage: Battery storage is becoming increasingly important for maximizing the value of solar energy. BloombergNEF expects the global market to be 10x larger in 2035 than it is today and will grow by 76% this year. The U.S. is the second largest market behind China. Expect to see more residential and commercial solar installations paired with battery storage in 2025
- Growth of community solar: Community solar projects are making solar accessible to more people, including those who cannot install rooftop solar. According to SEIA, the market will add more than 6 gigawatts over the next 5 years.
- Focus on grid modernization: Investments into the grid will be crucial to integrate more solar energy. I see grid modernization as a key focus for utilities and policymakers this year following the approval last year of $47.2 billion from grid operators and federal funding.
- Emphasis on domestic manufacturing: There is a growing push to increase domestic manufacturing of solar components. This trend is likely to continue in 2025, driven by policy support and concerns about supply chain security. The current capacity is just under 53 gigawatts for solar panels.
However, I’m just as realistic as I am optimistic. There are some challenges that the U.S. solar market may face in 2025:
- Supply Chain Issues: While supply chain disruptions have eased somewhat, they could still pose a challenge this year, particularly for certain components or materials.
- Trade Policies: As previously mentioned, the ongoing AD/CVD duties on solar imports from Southeast Asia will likely impact module availability and prices in 2025.
- Grid Integration: As solar capacity increases, grid integration becomes more complex and unfortunately, bureaucratic. Upgrading grid infrastructure and implementing smart grid technologies will be crucial to accommodating the growing amount of solar energy and critical to ensure a secure and resilient national grid.
- Workforce Development: The rapid growth of the solar industry requires a skilled workforce. Addressing the workforce development needs will be essential to sustain the industry's growth.
- Tax Incentives: Despite Trump’s return to the White House and Republican control of Congress, the 30% federal solar tax credit remains in effect as of February 2025.
- New Federal Administration: While Trump campaigned on repealing the “Green New Deal”, which is how he refers to the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), he can’t unilaterally cancel it. He would need Congressional support to repeal or alter the IRA. Although a previous attempt to suspend IRA funding via Executive Order failed, the future of the tax credit remains uncertain given potential legislative efforts.
By keeping an eye on these trends and challenges, stakeholders in the U.S. solar market can better position themselves for success this year and beyond.
A special thanks…
To Yousri Abdou, owner of Aten Solar, for sharing insights and advice about navigating the solar panel market.
More Resources:
Global PV Module Market Analysis and 2025 Outlook
How Solar Companies Can Leverage EnergyBin to Grow Your Network