As we launch into a new year, the solar industry will once again face ups and downs due to a variety of ongoing market conditions. From new technology to shifting supply chains to tariffs, every solar company can expect to face challenges with respect to PV module trade.
But challenges are not absent of opportunities. The solar industry will continue to grow. And there are steps wholesale buyers can take to procure solar panels at reasonable prices and on time for their project needs.
In this article, we interview Yousri Abdou, founder of Aten Solar, who shares U.S. market insights and advice to buyers who are sourcing solar panels. Aten has been a member of EnergyBin since 2017.
Globally, we’ll see PV module prices continue to decrease in price with sufficient supply to meet demand. Technological advancements, diversification of supply chains, and geopolitical issues, including tariffs, will be key factors affecting U.S. domestic pricing. These factors will cause fluctuations in both pricing and supply. That’s why prices are higher in the U.S. than global prices, and we’ll likely see prices increase as tariffs take effect.
That’s right. In 2025, new tariffs will apply to some solar imports into the U.S. Late last year, the DOC announced a preliminary decision to impose countervailing duties on solar cell imports from Southeast Asia.
Earlier in June, the International Trade Commission reported that “there is reasonable indication that the U.S. solar manufacturing industry is materially injured by imports of silicon solar cells and panels from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam.” That determination led to the federal government imposing antidumping tariffs. The DOC’s preliminary decision reveals what rates are to be implemented this year. Solar Power World gives a simple breakdown of AD subsidy rates by country and manufacturers.
Final AD and CVD rates should be announced in April. But importers should already be planning for these added duties and can use the preliminary rates as a benchmark.
As for blanket tariffs announced by the new presidential administration, it’s a little early in the game to anticipate what effect these tariffs could have on the solar industry.
Generally, duties have led to shifts in the global solar supply chain as companies seek alternative sources for wafers, solar cells, and modules. For example, we’re seeing more module imports from Turkey and Indonesia because they are currently tariff-free countries.
But tariffs certainly add a challenge and cut down on the variety of modules available for sale. As supply chains shift, we’ll likely have access to a wider array of modules.
Additionally, new tariffs will raise module prices. Clean Energy Associates recently reported that tariffed modules from Southeast Asia are now costing 5 cents per watt more than tariff-free modules. CEA also noted that pricing on domestic or non-AD/CVD impacted modules will go up as bankable supply goes down.
I believe scarcity will create a boost in secondary market activity as buyers turn to additional sourcing solutions, like EnergyBin. But too much scarcity can also have a negative impact on pricing and project timelines. A balance between supply and demand is ideal, although not always within our control.
The best advice I can offer to wholesale buyers is to develop strong relationships with vendors who have established diversified supply chains and who have contingency plans in place to work around geopolitical and economic factors.
Because of the market’s instability, I would suggest a buyer includes language in the Purchase Order that ensures all duties, including potential retroactive duties, have or will be paid by the seller and is not the responsibility of the buyer. Then, have the seller sign it.
Again, I highly recommend buyers build strong relationships with multiple suppliers to diversify their sources and reduce reliance on any single one. Doing so can help to secure supply even when others are facing shortages.
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I’m quite optimistic that the market is poised for growth this year, particularly in these areas of focus:
However, I’m just as realistic as I am optimistic. There are some challenges that the U.S. solar market may face in 2025:
By keeping an eye on these trends and challenges, stakeholders in the U.S. solar market can better position themselves for success this year and beyond.